Life Simulator

Lineage diversity

After a transition, does a world stay polyphyletic, and do more lineages survive as a cell's reach shrinks? The radius sweep's diversity half, re-run at the emergent rate with lineages that follow descent through reverse copies, read on the effective number of lineages rather than a count of every tag a cell still holds.

Substrate
soup
Status
finished
Epochs per run
20,000
Runs finished
360 / 360
Transition rate
61 of 360 finished runs flagged by the detector (17%), 49 confirmed by a replicator

Findings resting on this sweep: After emergence, one lineage takes the world at every reach negative

Transition epoch vs radius
1 2 4 well-mixed 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 Radius Transition epoch 1: emerged at epoch 7000 1: emerged at epoch 5030 1: emerged at epoch 6210 1: emerged at epoch 17250 1: emerged at epoch 9330 2: emerged at epoch 13160 2: emerged at epoch 19030 2: emerged at epoch 2630 2: emerged at epoch 11390 2: emerged at epoch 9860 2: emerged at epoch 12200 2: emerged at epoch 15070 2: emerged at epoch 16540 2: emerged at epoch 8920 2: emerged at epoch 14470 2: emerged at epoch 15980 2: emerged at epoch 4240 4: emerged at epoch 11160 4: emerged at epoch 18260 4: emerged at epoch 8800 4: emerged at epoch 19820 4: emerged at epoch 7350 4: emerged at epoch 5540 4: emerged at epoch 8640 4: emerged at epoch 4760 4: emerged at epoch 1970 4: emerged at epoch 3990 4: emerged at epoch 4890 4: emerged at epoch 5830 4: emerged at epoch 7580 4: emerged at epoch 3280 4: emerged at epoch 4960 4: emerged at epoch 17250 4: emerged at epoch 15940 4: emerged at epoch 17720 4: emerged at epoch 9760 4: emerged at epoch 13520 4: emerged at epoch 910 4: emerged at epoch 1500 4: emerged at epoch 18570 4: emerged at epoch 14640 4: emerged at epoch 10000 well-mixed: emerged at epoch 1450 well-mixed: emerged at epoch 13420 well-mixed: emerged at epoch 11650 well-mixed: emerged at epoch 9100 well-mixed: emerged at epoch 4410 well-mixed: emerged at epoch 11970 well-mixed: emerged at epoch 1040 4: flagged at epoch 11930, unconfirmed 4: flagged at epoch 11020, unconfirmed 4: flagged at epoch 12960, unconfirmed 4: flagged at epoch 13090, unconfirmed 4: flagged at epoch 5920, unconfirmed 4: flagged at epoch 1420, unconfirmed well-mixed: flagged at epoch 1720, unconfirmed well-mixed: flagged at epoch 13910, unconfirmed well-mixed: flagged at epoch 9990, unconfirmed well-mixed: flagged at epoch 11250, unconfirmed well-mixed: flagged at epoch 18450, unconfirmed well-mixed: flagged at epoch 9430, unconfirmed 1: no emergence in 20000 epochs (85 of 90 runs) 85 2: no emergence in 20000 epochs (78 of 90 runs) 78 4: no emergence in 20000 epochs (65 of 90 runs) 65 well-mixed: no emergence in 20000 epochs (83 of 90 runs) 83

Filled dots are runs a replicator confirmed emerged in; the line joins the median per value. Hollow dots are crossings the detector flagged that nothing confirmed. Hollow markers at the top count the runs with no emergence in 20000 epochs, the flagged-only ones among them.

Arms of radius
Radius n Flagged Emerged Median epoch IQR Censored
1 90 5/90 6% 5/90 6% 7,000 6,210–9,330 85
2 90 12/90 13% 12/90 13% 12,680 9,625–15,298 78
4 90 31/90 34% 25/90 28% 8,640 flagged 8,800 4,890–14,640 65
well-mixed 90 13/90 14% 7/90 8% 9,100 flagged 9,990 2,930–11,810 83

Flagged counts the crossings the transition detector reported; emerged counts the ones the replicator census or the copy rate confirmed. The median epoch and the IQR are of the confirmed emergences, the flagged median beside them in grey; a flagged crossing nothing confirmed is censored like a run that was never flagged.

Time to emergence vs radius
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 Epoch P(no emergence) 1 — 5 of 90 emerged 2 — 12 of 90 emerged 4 — 25 of 90 emerged well-mixed — 7 of 90 emerged

Each line is the estimated share of runs in an arm with no self-replicator yet at that epoch. A run that never emerged is censored where it was last watched, so it holds the line up only for as long as it was actually observed.

Emergence hazard per arm of radius
Radius Runs Events Run-epochs at risk Hazard per 104 epochs (95% CI) Persisted
1 90 5 1,744,820 0.0287 (0.0093–0.0669) 5 of 5
2 90 12 1,703,490 0.0704 (0.0364–0.123) 10 of 12 2 relapsed
4 90 25 1,536,640 0.163 (0.105–0.24) 18 of 31 13 relapsed
well-mixed 90 7 1,713,040 0.0409 (0.0164–0.0842) 3 of 13 10 relapsed
All arms 360 49 6,697,990 0.0732 (0.0541–0.0967) 36 of 61 25 relapsed

Persisted counts the emergences whose world was still in the transitioned state at its last sample; the rest climbed back out of it and are counted as relapses.

Distinct lineages vs epoch, per arm of radius
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 Epoch Distinct lineages 1 2 4 well-mixed
  • 1
  • 2
  • 4
  • well-mixed
Share of the largest lineage vs epoch, per arm of radius
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 Epoch Share of the largest lineage 1 2 4 well-mixed
  • 1
  • 2
  • 4
  • well-mixed
Compressed length of the dominant tape (bytes) vs epoch, per arm of radius
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 60 80 Epoch Compressed length of the dominant tape (bytes) 1 2 4 well-mixed
  • 1
  • 2
  • 4
  • well-mixed
Instructions in the dominant tape vs epoch, per arm of radius
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 0 10 20 30 40 50 Epoch Instructions in the dominant tape 1 2 4 well-mixed
  • 1
  • 2
  • 4
  • well-mixed
Compressed length of the largest lineage's tape (bytes) vs epoch, per arm of radius
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 60 80 Epoch Compressed length of the largest lineage's tape (bytes) 1 2 4 well-mixed
  • 1
  • 2
  • 4
  • well-mixed
Instructions in the largest lineage's tape vs epoch, per arm of radius
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 0 5 10 15 20 25 Epoch Instructions in the largest lineage's tape 1 2 4 well-mixed
  • 1
  • 2
  • 4
  • well-mixed
Detector against replicator census, per arm
1 2 4 well-mixed 0 5 10 15 20 Arm Runs 1 — flagged only: 1 of 90 sampled runs 1 — replicators only: 0 of 90 sampled runs 1 — both: 4 of 90 sampled runs 2 — flagged only: 4 of 90 sampled runs 2 — replicators only: 0 of 90 sampled runs 2 — both: 8 of 90 sampled runs 4 — flagged only: 18 of 90 sampled runs 4 — replicators only: 2 of 90 sampled runs 4 — both: 13 of 90 sampled runs well-mixed — flagged only: 8 of 90 sampled runs well-mixed — replicators only: 0 of 90 sampled runs well-mixed — both: 5 of 90 sampled runs
  • Flagged only
  • Replicators only
  • Both

The two outer bars of an arm are its disagreements: runs the detector flagged with no replicator ever counted, and runs that counted one without being flagged.

Detector against replicator census, per arm — flagged runs held compress_ratio below 0.6, replicating runs counted at least one replicator at the locked top_k 16; the wider column re-reads the stored worlds of the same runs at top_k 64 and is blank for an arm no corpus pass has measured
Arm Sampled runs Flagged Replicators Replicators at top_k 64 Both Either but not both
1 90 5 4 4 1
2 90 12 8 8 4
4 90 31 15 13 20
well-mixed 90 13 5 5 8

The pre-registered reading final

Every run of the sweep has finished. A run emerged where it has a confirmed emergence epoch and reads replicator_share of at least 50% at some sample from it on. It is polyphyletic where the median lineage_effective_count of the last decile of its samples since emergence is at least 2.0, monophyletic below 1.5, between otherwise, and unmeasured where fewer than 10 of that decile's samples carry it. An arm with fewer than 2 measured emerged runs is unread.

Runs per arm, read so far. The effective count is the median over the arm's measured runs; the columns after it are last-decile medians over the same runs, and descriptive only, as is the radius sweep's emergence count, which ran at another rate, other seeds and another lineage rule.
Arm Runs Finished Emerged Measured Polyphyletic Between Monophyletic Unmeasured lineage_effective_count Reading lineages_over_one_percent lineage_variation_oriented conserved_core_bytes_oriented conserved_core_ops_oriented copy_latency, first → last decile Radius sweep emerged
well-mixed 90 90 3 3 0 0 3 0 1 read 1 34.7 0 0 1090 → 908 2 of 10
radius 4 90 90 16 16 0 2 14 0 1 read 1 40.1 0 0 955 → 1010 1 of 10
radius 2 90 90 9 9 0 2 7 0 1 read 1 51.1 0 0 712 → 736 1 of 10
radius 1 90 90 4 4 0 1 3 0 1 read 1 45.2 0 0 469 → 663 1 of 10

Hypothesis

After a transition a world stays polyphyletic, and more lineages survive as a cell's reach shrinks: neither shown nor refuted

One-sided Jonckheere–Terpstra trend over well-mixed < radius 4 < radius 2 < radius 1: statistic 194, permutation p = 0.0793 over 100,000 dealings, read at p < 0.05. The read arm of shortest reach, radius 1, has a median effective count of 1.

Replicators by the orientation-aware detector

The detector reads a random sample of 256 cells of a stored world and runs each cell's tape down a chain of 5 runs against fresh noise, each copy carried into the next run. After the last run the first half holds the fourth copy, back in the tape's own orientation even for a tape that writes its reverse; the cell passes where 3/4 of its positions match the original, each position read by the majority of 5 trials. The locked census counts only same-orientation copies among the 16 commonest tapes, so it reads zero in worlds of reverse copiers. Only the worlds a run kept are read — the first and the last, one about every 1000 epochs and the one nearest the transition — so every run is read at the same cadence, and a first replicator epoch here is no finer than that. Live samples are not used. A run is measured once the corpus pass has read every world it kept; until then it counts in none of the census columns, and the pass is re-run as runs finish. A world holds replicators where at least 50% of its sampled cells pass. This is a companion reading: it relocks neither the census nor the emergence rule (#245).

Detector, emergence rule and orientation-aware census, per arm, over finished runs — the census columns count measured runs only
Arm Finished runs Measured Flagged Emerged Replicator worlds Held to the end Replicators, not emerged Emerged, no replicators Median first replicator epoch (coarse)
1 90 90 5 5 4 4 0 1 ~8,000
2 90 90 12 12 9 7 0 3 ~13,000
4 90 90 31 25 14 11 1 12 ~9,000
well-mixed 90 90 13 7 5 3 2 4 ~12,000

Download oriented census (CSV)

Runs

Download CSV Download transition report (CSV)

Seed Radius Status Priority Epochs done Transition epoch Census
21 4 finished 20 20,000 — — Run
22 4 finished 20 20,000 — — Run
23 4 finished 20 20,000 4,890 confirmed 94 Run
24 4 finished 20 20,000 — 3 census only Run
25 4 finished 20 20,000 1,500 confirmed 172 Run
26 4 finished 20 20,000 — — Run
27 4 finished 20 20,000 — — Run
28 4 finished 20 20,000 — — Run
29 4 finished 20 20,000 7,350 confirmed 154 Run
30 4 finished 20 20,000 — — Run
31 4 finished 20 20,000 — — Run
32 4 finished 20 20,000 — — Run
33 4 finished 20 20,000 2,450 confirmed 108 Run
34 4 finished 20 20,000 — — Run
35 4 finished 20 20,000 — — Run
36 4 finished 20 20,000 — — Run
37 4 finished 20 20,000 — 2 census only Run
38 4 finished 20 20,000 — — Run
39 4 finished 20 20,000 — — Run
40 4 finished 20 20,000 4,960 confirmed — detector only Run