Life Simulator

Mutation rate, long runs

Sweep 1 saw transitions only at 2^-13 and 2^-12 (one seed in ten each) within 20 000 epochs. Same world, rates around that window, three times longer: is emergence rare or just slow?

Substrate
soup
Status
finished
Epochs per run
60,000
Runs finished
40 / 40
Transition rate
8 of 40 finished runs flagged by the detector (20%), 8 confirmed by a replicator

Findings resting on this sweep: Emergence is rare, and half of it happens after epoch 20 000 partial

Transition epoch vs mutation rate
6.1e-05 0.000122 0.000244 0.000488 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 Mutation rate Transition epoch 6.1e-05: emerged at epoch 39320 0.000122: emerged at epoch 5030 0.000122: emerged at epoch 7000 0.000244: emerged at epoch 15560 0.000244: emerged at epoch 47820 0.000244: emerged at epoch 43220 0.000244: emerged at epoch 21540 0.000488: emerged at epoch 42730 6.1e-05: no emergence in 60000 epochs (9 of 10 runs) 9 0.000122: no emergence in 60000 epochs (8 of 10 runs) 8 0.000244: no emergence in 60000 epochs (6 of 10 runs) 6 0.000488: no emergence in 60000 epochs (9 of 10 runs) 9

Filled dots are runs a replicator confirmed emerged in; the line joins the median per value. Hollow dots are crossings the detector flagged that nothing confirmed. Hollow markers at the top count the runs with no emergence in 60000 epochs, the flagged-only ones among them.

Arms of mutation rate
Mutation rate n Flagged Emerged Median epoch IQR Censored
6.1e-05 10 1/10 10% 1/10 10% 39,320 39,320 9
0.000122 10 2/10 20% 2/10 20% 6,015 5,523–6,508 8
0.000244 10 4/10 40% 4/10 40% 32,380 20,045–44,370 6
0.000488 10 1/10 10% 1/10 10% 42,730 42,730 9

Flagged counts the crossings the transition detector reported; emerged counts the ones the replicator census or the copy rate confirmed. The median epoch and the IQR are of the confirmed emergences, the flagged median beside them in grey; a flagged crossing nothing confirmed is censored like a run that was never flagged.

Time to emergence vs mutation rate
0 20000 40000 60000 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 Epoch P(no emergence) 6.1e-05 — 1 of 10 emerged 0.000122 — 2 of 10 emerged 0.000244 — 4 of 10 emerged 0.000488 — 1 of 10 emerged

Each line is the estimated share of runs in an arm with no self-replicator yet at that epoch. A run that never emerged is censored where it was last watched, so it holds the line up only for as long as it was actually observed.

Emergence hazard per arm of mutation rate
Mutation rate Runs Events Run-epochs at risk Hazard per 104 epochs (95% CI) Persisted
6.1e-05 10 1 579,320 0.0173 (0.000437–0.0962) 0 of 1 1 relapsed
0.000122 10 2 492,030 0.0406 (0.00492–0.147) 2 of 2
0.000244 10 4 488,140 0.0819 (0.0223–0.21) 2 of 4 2 relapsed
0.000488 10 1 582,730 0.0172 (0.000434–0.0956) 1 of 1
All arms 40 8 2,142,220 0.0373 (0.0161–0.0736) 5 of 8 3 relapsed

Persisted counts the emergences whose world was still in the transitioned state at its last sample; the rest climbed back out of it and are counted as relapses.

Detector against replicator census, per arm
6.1e-05 0.000122 0.000244 0.000488 0 1 2 3 Arm Runs 6.1e-05 — flagged only: 1 of 10 sampled runs 6.1e-05 — replicators only: 0 of 10 sampled runs 6.1e-05 — both: 0 of 10 sampled runs 0.000122 — flagged only: 0 of 10 sampled runs 0.000122 — replicators only: 0 of 10 sampled runs 0.000122 — both: 2 of 10 sampled runs 0.000244 — flagged only: 1 of 10 sampled runs 0.000244 — replicators only: 0 of 10 sampled runs 0.000244 — both: 3 of 10 sampled runs 0.000488 — flagged only: 0 of 10 sampled runs 0.000488 — replicators only: 0 of 10 sampled runs 0.000488 — both: 1 of 10 sampled runs
  • Flagged only
  • Replicators only
  • Both

The two outer bars of an arm are its disagreements: runs the detector flagged with no replicator ever counted, and runs that counted one without being flagged.

Detector against replicator census, per arm — flagged runs held compress_ratio below 0.6, replicating runs counted at least one replicator at the locked top_k 16; the wider column re-reads the stored worlds of the same runs at top_k 64 and is blank for an arm no corpus pass has measured
Arm Sampled runs Flagged Replicators Replicators at top_k 64 Both Either but not both
6.1e-05 10 1 0 0 1
0.000122 10 2 2 2 0
0.000244 10 4 3 3 1
0.000488 10 1 1 1 0

Replicators by the orientation-aware detector

The detector reads a random sample of 256 cells of a stored world and runs each cell's tape down a chain of 5 runs against fresh noise, each copy carried into the next run. After the last run the first half holds the fourth copy, back in the tape's own orientation even for a tape that writes its reverse; the cell passes where 3/4 of its positions match the original, each position read by the majority of 5 trials. The locked census counts only same-orientation copies among the 16 commonest tapes, so it reads zero in worlds of reverse copiers. Only the worlds a run kept are read — the first and the last, one about every 1000 epochs and the one nearest the transition — so every run is read at the same cadence, and a first replicator epoch here is no finer than that. Live samples are not used. A run is measured once the corpus pass has read every world it kept; until then it counts in none of the census columns, and the pass is re-run as runs finish. A world holds replicators where at least 50% of its sampled cells pass. This is a companion reading: it relocks neither the census nor the emergence rule (#245).

Detector, emergence rule and orientation-aware census, per arm, over finished runs — the census columns count measured runs only
Arm Finished runs Measured Flagged Emerged Replicator worlds Held to the end Replicators, not emerged Emerged, no replicators Median first replicator epoch (coarse)
6.1e-05 10 10 1 1 0 0 0 1 —
0.000122 10 10 2 2 1 1 0 1 ~10,000
0.000244 10 10 4 4 2 2 0 2 ~20,000
0.000488 10 10 1 1 1 1 0 0 ~45,000

Download oriented census (CSV)

Runs

Download CSV Download transition report (CSV)

Seed Mutation rate Status Priority Epochs done Transition epoch Census
1 6.1e-05 finished 0 60,000 — — Run
2 6.1e-05 finished 0 60,000 — — Run
3 6.1e-05 finished 0 60,000 39,320 confirmed — detector only Run
4 6.1e-05 finished 0 60,000 — — Run
5 6.1e-05 finished 0 60,000 — — Run
6 6.1e-05 finished 0 60,000 — — Run
7 6.1e-05 finished 0 60,000 — — Run
8 6.1e-05 finished 0 60,000 — — Run
9 6.1e-05 finished 0 60,000 — — Run
10 6.1e-05 finished 0 60,000 — — Run
1 0.000122 finished 0 60,000 5,030 confirmed 867 Run
2 0.000122 finished 5 60,000 — — Run
3 0.000122 finished 5 60,000 — — Run
4 0.000122 finished 5 60,000 — — Run
5 0.000122 finished 20 60,000 7,000 confirmed 108 Run
6 0.000122 finished 5 60,000 — — Run
7 0.000122 finished 7 60,000 — — Run
8 0.000122 finished 7 60,000 — — Run
9 0.000122 finished 7 60,000 — — Run
10 0.000122 finished 7 60,000 — — Run