Life Simulator

Mutation rate

Is there a mutation rate window for abiogenesis? Zero mutation should delay emergence and too much should destroy it (error threshold).

Substrate
soup
Status
finished
Epochs per run
20,000
Runs finished
100 / 100
Transition rate
5 of 100 finished runs flagged by the detector (5%), 4 confirmed by a replicator

Findings resting on this sweep: Life emerged, but the mutation-rate window did not partial

Transition epoch vs mutation rate
0 3.05e-05 0.000122 0.000488 0.00195 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 Mutation rate Transition epoch 0.000122: emerged at epoch 5030 0.000122: emerged at epoch 7000 0.00195: emerged at epoch 10670 0.00391: emerged at epoch 18080 0.000244: flagged at epoch 15560, unconfirmed 0: no emergence in 20000 epochs (10 of 10 runs) 10 1.53e-05: no emergence in 20000 epochs (10 of 10 runs) 10 3.05e-05: no emergence in 20000 epochs (10 of 10 runs) 10 6.1e-05: no emergence in 20000 epochs (10 of 10 runs) 10 0.000122: no emergence in 20000 epochs (8 of 10 runs) 8 0.000244: no emergence in 20000 epochs (10 of 10 runs) 10 0.000488: no emergence in 20000 epochs (10 of 10 runs) 10 0.000977: no emergence in 20000 epochs (10 of 10 runs) 10 0.00195: no emergence in 20000 epochs (9 of 10 runs) 9 0.00391: no emergence in 20000 epochs (9 of 10 runs) 9

Filled dots are runs a replicator confirmed emerged in; the line joins the median per value. Hollow dots are crossings the detector flagged that nothing confirmed. Hollow markers at the top count the runs with no emergence in 20000 epochs, the flagged-only ones among them.

Arms of mutation rate
Mutation rate n Flagged Emerged Median epoch IQR Censored
0 10 0/10 0% 0/10 0% — — 10
1.53e-05 10 0/10 0% 0/10 0% — — 10
3.05e-05 10 0/10 0% 0/10 0% — — 10
6.1e-05 10 0/10 0% 0/10 0% — — 10
0.000122 10 2/10 20% 2/10 20% 6,015 5,523–6,508 8
0.000244 10 1/10 10% 0/10 0% — flagged 15,560 — 10
0.000488 10 0/10 0% 0/10 0% — — 10
0.000977 10 0/10 0% 0/10 0% — — 10
0.00195 10 1/10 10% 1/10 10% 10,670 10,670 9
0.00391 10 1/10 10% 1/10 10% 18,080 18,080 9

Flagged counts the crossings the transition detector reported; emerged counts the ones the replicator census or the copy rate confirmed. The median epoch and the IQR are of the confirmed emergences, the flagged median beside them in grey; a flagged crossing nothing confirmed is censored like a run that was never flagged.

Time to emergence vs mutation rate
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 Epoch P(no emergence) 0 — 0 of 10 emerged 1.53e-05 — 0 of 10 emerged 3.05e-05 — 0 of 10 emerged 6.1e-05 — 0 of 10 emerged 0.000122 — 2 of 10 emerged 0.000244 — 0 of 10 emerged 0.000488 — 0 of 10 emerged 0.000977 — 0 of 10 emerged 0.00195 — 1 of 10 emerged 0.00391 — 1 of 10 emerged

Each line is the estimated share of runs in an arm with no self-replicator yet at that epoch. A run that never emerged is censored where it was last watched, so it holds the line up only for as long as it was actually observed.

Emergence hazard per arm of mutation rate
Mutation rate Runs Events Run-epochs at risk Hazard per 104 epochs (95% CI) Persisted
0 10 0 195,673 0 (0–0.189) —
1.53e-05 10 0 197,363 0 (0–0.187) —
3.05e-05 10 0 198,295 0 (0–0.186) —
6.1e-05 10 0 200,000 0 (0–0.184) —
0.000122 10 2 172,030 0.116 (0.0141–0.42) 2 of 2
0.000244 10 0 200,000 0 (0–0.184) 1 of 1
0.000488 10 0 200,000 0 (0–0.184) —
0.000977 10 0 200,000 0 (0–0.184) —
0.00195 10 1 190,670 0.0524 (0.00133–0.292) 0 of 1 1 relapsed
0.00391 10 1 198,080 0.0505 (0.00128–0.281) 1 of 1
All arms 100 4 1,952,111 0.0205 (0.00558–0.0525) 4 of 5 1 relapsed

Persisted counts the emergences whose world was still in the transitioned state at its last sample; the rest climbed back out of it and are counted as relapses.

Detector against replicator census, per arm
0 3.05e-05 0.000122 0.000488 0.00195 0 1 2 Arm Runs 0 — flagged only: 0 of 10 sampled runs 0 — replicators only: 0 of 10 sampled runs 0 — both: 0 of 10 sampled runs 1.53e-05 — flagged only: 0 of 10 sampled runs 1.53e-05 — replicators only: 0 of 10 sampled runs 1.53e-05 — both: 0 of 10 sampled runs 3.05e-05 — flagged only: 0 of 10 sampled runs 3.05e-05 — replicators only: 0 of 10 sampled runs 3.05e-05 — both: 0 of 10 sampled runs 6.1e-05 — flagged only: 0 of 10 sampled runs 6.1e-05 — replicators only: 0 of 10 sampled runs 6.1e-05 — both: 0 of 10 sampled runs 0.000122 — flagged only: 0 of 10 sampled runs 0.000122 — replicators only: 0 of 10 sampled runs 0.000122 — both: 2 of 10 sampled runs 0.000244 — flagged only: 1 of 10 sampled runs 0.000244 — replicators only: 0 of 10 sampled runs 0.000244 — both: 0 of 10 sampled runs 0.000488 — flagged only: 0 of 10 sampled runs 0.000488 — replicators only: 0 of 10 sampled runs 0.000488 — both: 0 of 10 sampled runs 0.000977 — flagged only: 0 of 10 sampled runs 0.000977 — replicators only: 0 of 10 sampled runs 0.000977 — both: 0 of 10 sampled runs 0.00195 — flagged only: 0 of 10 sampled runs 0.00195 — replicators only: 0 of 10 sampled runs 0.00195 — both: 1 of 10 sampled runs 0.00391 — flagged only: 1 of 10 sampled runs 0.00391 — replicators only: 1 of 10 sampled runs 0.00391 — both: 0 of 10 sampled runs
  • Flagged only
  • Replicators only
  • Both

The two outer bars of an arm are its disagreements: runs the detector flagged with no replicator ever counted, and runs that counted one without being flagged.

Detector against replicator census, per arm — flagged runs held compress_ratio below 0.6, replicating runs counted at least one replicator at the locked top_k 16; the wider column re-reads the stored worlds of the same runs at top_k 64 and is blank for an arm no corpus pass has measured
Arm Sampled runs Flagged Replicators Replicators at top_k 64 Both Either but not both
0 10 0 0 0 0 0
1.53e-05 10 0 0 0 0 0
3.05e-05 10 0 0 0 0 0
6.1e-05 10 0 0 0 0 0
0.000122 10 2 2 0 2 0
0.000244 10 1 0 0 0 1
0.000488 10 0 0 0 0 0
0.000977 10 0 0 0 0 0
0.00195 10 1 1 0 1 0
0.00391 10 1 1 0 0 2
Does complexity keep rising, per arm — the median of the last decile of each emerged run's post-crossing samples against the median of its first decile. An arm keeps rising where at least half its measured runs raise dominant_instruction_count by 20% or more without their conserved core falling, and plateaus where at least half sit within 10% of where they started. An arm clearing both bars reads mixed and one clearing neither reads neither. A run is measured on its instruction count, and its conserved core is compared in bytes, so a core that reads zero at both ends counts as a core that did not fall — the post-hoc amendment of 2026-09-21; the pre-registered rule dropped those runs as unmeasured, and the pre-registered unmeasured column counts, per arm, the measured runs it dropped. A run carrying no conserved core at all over the span is unmeasured. dominant_compressed_len is printed beside them and decides nothing: it saturates at the tape cap plus zlib's envelope, and distinct_lineages is the secondary reading of sweep 10, where an arms race shows as a late-run lineage count above the control's at the same cap. An arm reads on two measured runs, or on a blank block of ten; a steal arm whose steal_rate never left zero reads as theft that never evolved, not as theft that does not help, and one never sampled on that observable reads unmeasured
Arm Emerged Measured Pre-registered unmeasured Instructions Conserved core Compressed length Distinct lineages Rising Plateau Peak steal_rate Reading
0 0 / 10 0 0 — — — — 0 / 0 0 / 0 — barren
1.53e-05 0 / 10 0 0 — — — — 0 / 0 0 / 0 — barren
3.05e-05 0 / 10 0 0 — — — — 0 / 0 0 / 0 — barren
6.1e-05 0 / 10 0 0 — — — — 0 / 0 0 / 0 — barren
0.000244 0 / 10 0 0 — — — — 0 / 0 0 / 0 — barren
0.000488 0 / 10 0 0 — — — — 0 / 0 0 / 0 — barren
0.000977 0 / 10 0 0 — — — — 0 / 0 0 / 0 — barren
Replicator census vs top_k — stored worlds re-read at each window, the last column counting the runs whose census is empty at the locked top_k of 16 and non-empty here
top_k Worlds measured Runs with replicators Median count Max count Newly positive runs
16 100 0/100 0 0 —
64 100 0/100 0 0 0
256 100 0/100 0 0 0

Replicators by the orientation-aware detector

The detector reads a random sample of 256 cells of a stored world and runs each cell's tape down a chain of 5 runs against fresh noise, each copy carried into the next run. After the last run the first half holds the fourth copy, back in the tape's own orientation even for a tape that writes its reverse; the cell passes where 3/4 of its positions match the original, each position read by the majority of 5 trials. The locked census counts only same-orientation copies among the 16 commonest tapes, so it reads zero in worlds of reverse copiers. Only the worlds a run kept are read — the first and the last, one about every 1000 epochs and the one nearest the transition — so every run is read at the same cadence, and a first replicator epoch here is no finer than that. Live samples are not used. A run is measured once the corpus pass has read every world it kept; until then it counts in none of the census columns, and the pass is re-run as runs finish. A world holds replicators where at least 50% of its sampled cells pass. This is a companion reading: it relocks neither the census nor the emergence rule (#245).

Detector, emergence rule and orientation-aware census, per arm, over finished runs — the census columns count measured runs only
Arm Finished runs Measured Flagged Emerged Replicator worlds Held to the end Replicators, not emerged Emerged, no replicators Median first replicator epoch (coarse)
0 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 —
1.53e-05 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 —
3.05e-05 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 —
6.1e-05 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 —
0.000122 10 10 2 2 1 1 0 1 ~8,000
0.000244 10 10 1 0 1 1 1 0 ~17,000
0.000488 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 —
0.000977 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 —
0.00195 10 10 1 1 1 1 0 0 ~15,000
0.00391 10 10 1 1 1 1 0 0 ~20,000

Download oriented census (CSV)

Runs

Download CSV Download transition report (CSV) Download rescores (CSV)

Seed Mutation rate Status Priority Epochs done Transition epoch Census
1 0 finished 0 19,325 — — Run
2 0 finished 0 19,380 — — Run
3 0 finished 0 19,411 — — Run
4 0 finished 0 19,974 — — Run
5 0 finished 0 19,880 — — Run
6 0 finished 0 19,562 — — Run
7 0 finished 0 19,480 — — Run
8 0 finished 0 19,710 — — Run
9 0 finished 0 19,510 — — Run
10 0 finished 0 19,441 — — Run
1 1.53e-05 finished 0 19,970 — — Run
2 1.53e-05 finished 0 19,931 — — Run
3 1.53e-05 finished 0 19,900 — — Run
4 1.53e-05 finished 0 19,820 — — Run
5 1.53e-05 finished 0 19,702 — — Run
6 1.53e-05 finished 0 19,342 — — Run
7 1.53e-05 finished 0 19,638 — — Run
8 1.53e-05 finished 0 19,949 — — Run
9 1.53e-05 finished 0 19,431 — — Run
10 1.53e-05 finished 0 19,680 — — Run